$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better by Christopher Steiner is a fascinating read as the author predicts in a somewhat linear price centric manner what the future will look like with rapidly rising oil prices. Like most predictive works, there are some things which seem plausible and are firmly rooted in a reasonably assumptive view of the future, and others that require a huge leap of faith and do not seem to pass my litmus test of an evolving world with technology to match. His basic premise, the inevitable depletion of oil reserves and incremental rise in gas prices seems very likely. After all, there are many scenarios in which the cost of gas can and will rise. Oil is a limited resource and production capacity actually peaked many years ago. Hurricanes can impact offshore rigs and cause prices to rise. Problems in the Middle East, which these days seem relatively certain, can cause a significant jump at any time. China and India, on the precipice of massively increased consumption is another major factor. Surely, there is a compelling case for significant price increases, which in turn, would create a cascading impact across our current lifestyles. But how would that impact manifest itself on our lifestyles?
Steiner takes the reader chapter by chapter, illustrating the changes to our lives as gas increases incrementally from current levels to $20 per gallon. He offers some fascinating prognostication including the demographic shift from suburban to urban living, changes in purchase habits, travel habits, consumption and of course driving. He also examines some very interesting innovations in fuel conservation evolution. Some of his conjecture is quite thought provoking, but in a few cases, some fundamental questions of mine remained unanswered.
For example, there are two key factors that are not truly addressed in $20 Per Gallon. First, the author presupposes that there will be no cost effective replacement for oil before gas hits $20 a Gallon, if ever. He argues that oil is so cheap, there is no alternative that could provide for this cost effective replacement. I’m not ready to buy into that argument; I believe that a combination of greed and technology (is that contemporary capitalism?) can still provide a viable solution. How about a chicken in every pot and wind turbine on every roof campaign slogan? Perhaps America will become home to 300 million consumer based wind turbines that power up each and every efficient electric vehicle, eliminating automobile gas consumption. This may sound far-fetched today, but clearly we have seen some impressive gains in this arena. Secondly, and more applicable to my ongoing theme, is the extremely positive impact of virtual business on energy consumption. Imagine the reduction in consumption if half of the current workforce worked from home instead of commuting to an office. The reduction in energy consumption would be staggering. Combine this new commuting behavior with solar, wind, hydro and emerging green technologies, and we could see a dramatic change in consumption. Will this happen overnight? No, but it certainly could happen before we see gas hit $20 a gallon. Nonetheless, $20 Per Gallon is an interesting and fun read. I particularly enjoyed Steiner’s outlook on Walmart! There are many interesting winners and losers in Steiner’s rising price scenarios, and I can certainly recommend $20 Per Gallon as a winner. And yes, I did read it on a Kindle.
